Archive | June, 2014

How will the Fed normalize monetary policy post-taper?

As the Federal Reserve continues to reduce the pace of asset purchases, attention has turned to the impending rise in interest rates. But to control short-term rates, the Fed will need to rely on new tools. Ever since the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates down to effectively zero, the central bank has relied on large-scale […]

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Kicillof Kirchner Argentina

Argentina’s debt restructuring options limited

On June 16th, 2014, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of NML Capital Ltd (NML) over the Republic of Argentina in a major debt settlement case. The ruling has implications not only for Argentina but also other debt-ridden countries throughout the world. Regardless of how Argentina responds, Prime Minister Christina Fernandez de Kirchner’s options are unattractive. […]

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Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

ISIL in Iraq Series: What is in it for Iran?

ISIL’s recent territorial gains pose a significant threat to the security and stability of Iraq and its neighbors. For Iran, however, ISIL threatens to topple its most significant regional trading partner and economic lifeline. This article is part of a GRI series on ISIL, Iraq, and the Middle East. The vast territorial gains made by ISIL in […]

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Source: Wikimedia Commons

3 reasons economists keep forecasting growth wrong

The Fed and IMF again downgraded US growth projections, as they have done repeatedly for the last five years. When the Federal Reserve and the IMF downgraded their forecasts for the US’ growth in 2014 last week, both bodies pointed to the terrible winter weather (that brought the term ‘Polar Vortex’ into the nation’s vocabulary) […]

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China real estate

China’s mortgages pose risk to financial system

Zero-down payment mortgages in China suggest an increasingly risky Chinese financial system, with symptoms similar to those seen leading up to the U.S. credit crisis. Home buyers all over China, from Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south to Beijing in the north, are being offered zero-down-payment mortgages to cover their real estate acquisitions, recalling memories of the US subprime […]

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ISIL ISIS Iraq Kurdistan

ISIL in Iraq Series: What does ISIL mean for Iraqi Kurdistan?

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has moved onto the Kurdistan Regional Governorate’s doorstep, killing and plundering its way from Mosul to near Baghdad. Some champions of Kurdistan see opportunity, all the while Iraq faces an existential threat. This article is part of a GRI series on ISIL, Iraq, and the Middle East. As ISIL moved […]

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Moldova elections flag

5 events to watch before Moldova’s 2014 elections

Moldova’s upcoming elections in November present short-term and long-term political risks. Here are five specific events to watch in the coming months. 1. Short-term support for the European Union The situation in Moldova has been one of overwhelming support for accession to the European Union in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. The ruling Liberal Democratic coalition has […]

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Iran-South America trade suffers as relations thaw with the West

Iran’s relations with South America under former president Ahmadinejad now face a decline in economic cooperation, as Iran mends its ties with the United States. Will improved relations between Iran and the West have economic consequences for South America?  As attention turns to Iran’s tentative cooperation with its geopolitical rival, the United States, in efforts to combat […]

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FSA rebels Syria

ISIL in Iraq Series: New enemies challenge ISIL’s continued advance

ISIL has conquered substantial territory in past weeks, but also gained new enemies. The increased focus on and military contra against ISIL means that the group cannot continue for long. This article is part of a GRI series on ISIL, Iraq, and the Middle East. In the coming months, the gains made by The Islamic State […]

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Narenda Modi (INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP/Getty Images)

Will India’s new PM achieve ‘minimum government, maximum governance?’

India’s new Prime Minister Modi seeks to cut the federal government and make it more efficient. Yet, there are significant challenges to overcome before he can improve the efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of the executive. After assuming office as the 15th Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in line with his campaign mantra of ‘Minimum Government Maximum […]

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