ISIL in Iraq Series: What is in it for Iran?

ISIL’s recent territorial gains pose a significant threat to the security and stability of Iraq and its neighbors. For Iran, however, ISIL threatens to topple its most significant regional trading partner and economic lifeline. This article is part of a GRI series on ISIL, Iraq, and the Middle East. The vast territorial gains made by ISIL in […]

Final agreement with Iran would boost trade but hurt Chinese interests

With the introduction of a comprehensive agreement and the thawing of U.S-Iranian relations, a new era of regional dynamics will be ushered in. Some of these dynamics could adversely impact Chinese national interests in the Persian Gulf and beyond. Changing regional dynamics China has much to gain should P5+1 negotiations succeed. Sourcing upwards of 50% […]

Iran-U.S. relations improving despite nomination setback

Iran-U.S. relations turned especially reactive in April 2014. But buried beneath the tough rhetoric and diplomatic posturing are indications of long-term potential for improved relations. After this tumultuous month of diplomacy, the casual observer of Tehran-Washington relations can be forgiven for having a pessimistic outlook. What should have been a month of increased partnership and confidence-building […]

Five political risk factors affecting oil markets in 2014

Predicting oil trends was always a precarious job, and 2014 will not be any different in that regard. But the year ahead could bring developments with longer-term consequences for the global energy markets. 1. Energy revolution in North America shapes global markets The energy boom in North America will continue to change global energy trends […]

Iranian oil exports still restricted, but prices may drop

US and EU sanctions on Iranian oil exports will remain intact for the next 6 months, but the psychological impact of the Geneva deal might in fact lower oil prices. Opinions on last Monday’s nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries are vehement and varied. It appears the only point of agreement is that […]

Op-Ed: Iran is driving the bus, so why is the West celebrating?

This article by Daniel Wagner first appeared in the Huffington Post and is reposted with their permission. Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk advisory firm, and author of the book “Managing Country Risk.” Supreme Iranian leader Khamenei spent much of last week lambasting the U.S. and Israel, as the Iranian negotiating team worked […]

Geneva talks are critical for the Iranian economy

Iran will take part in the P5+1 talks in Geneva later this week, in what could be a critical step in rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran. Central to the talks will be Iran’s willingness to cap its nuclear enrichment efforts and the U.S.’ willingness to reduce debilitating sanctions imposed on Iran. The second round of […]

Why the US should invest in Iran

Necessity makes strange bedfellows. In the wake of US President Barack Obama’s phone call to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in September, a US-Iran détente may be possible. Even with a new warmth between the two countries, a number of questions have been raised, the most obvious being “what now?” With the states slowly inching towards […]